Critical Minerals in Global Trade: Strategic Transformation and Its Implications
The "Global Trade Update" report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), dated June 2026, highlights the growing significance of critical energy transition minerals that are reshaping the course of world trade. The substantial share of materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements in clean energy technologies and digitalization processes has elevated the commercial status of these products to that of "strategic commodities." According to the projections outlined in the report, demand is anticipated to increase substantially in the forthcoming period, with lithium demand projected to rise by 353%, graphite by 131%, nickel by 69%, rare earth magnets by 65%, cobalt by 49%, and copper by 28%.
Shifting Balances in Trade Policies and Country Practices
An analysis of international trade data indicates that trade policies concerning critical minerals are increasingly being restructured by states as strategic tools. Between January 2020 and May 2026, approximately 100 new export restrictions—comprising 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, and 29 export bans—were put into effect. These measures are being utilized by resource-rich countries, primarily the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has implemented the highest number of policies, followed by China and Indonesia. Rather than exporting raw materials directly, these nations aim to expand local processing capacity, facilitate technology transfer, and enhance domestic value-added.
Concentration in the Supply Chain and Alternative Networks
The geographical concentration of critical minerals across reserve, mining, and refining processes underscores the delicate balance within global supply chains. Currently, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for 74% of global cobalt production, Indonesia accounts for 67% of global nickel mining, and China accounts for 69% of rare earth element production alongside 78% of natural graphite production. Furthermore, Australia, Chile, and China collectively supply 72% of global lithium production. The dominant role assumed by China, particularly in the refining stage, compels major importing blocs to establish alternative supply networks.
Within this framework, the European Union has established domestic production, processing, and recycling targets through the Critical Raw Materials Act. In line with this approach, 15 strategic partnership agreements have been signed to date, and approximately 2 billion euros in financing has been committed for 2025 via the European Investment Bank. Meanwhile, the United States launched its 12-billion-dollar public-private strategic stockpile program, "Project Vault," in 2026 and signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the European Union on critical minerals in April 2026. Similarly, Japan, under its Economic Security Act, is securing financing and subsidies for projects by signing Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CTEM) agreements with Angola, the Congo, and Namibia to achieve resource diversification.
The Evolution of International Mineral Partnerships
To ensure supply security, a distinct momentum has been observed in multilateral and bilateral partnership agreements in the period following 2022. The distribution of the 73 strategic agreements analyzed by UNCTAD by participating parties is structured as follows:
• 27 agreements were signed between developed and developing countries,
• 26 agreements were signed among developed countries themselves,
• 20 agreements were signed among developing countries themselves.
The scope of these partnerships extends beyond mere mining activities to encompass processing, refining, technology transfer, mutual investments, and sustainable recycling processes.
Conclusion
In this period where international trade markets face the risk of fragmentation around competing blocs, the ongoing strategic transformation will inevitably exert significant effects on Turkey’s foreign trade structure and industrial strategies. The surge in international demand for critical minerals must be planned in alignment with our country’s industrial transformation and production targets.
In the upcoming period, the integration of changing international trade rules and export restrictions regarding critical minerals into domestic legislation will be of critical importance. To secure the continuity of supply for raw materials required in industrial production, it is essential to closely monitor the rapidly multiplying international partnership models worldwide and to diversify supply networks. To maintain competitiveness in foreign trade, it remains a fundamental necessity to focus on strengthening the technological infrastructure in processing, domestic technology transfer, and recycling processes, rather than relying solely on the import of raw materials.
In conclusion, in this new era of international trade, policy coherence and international cooperation on critical minerals will be key determinants of sustainable economic development. This new order, which influences the flow of trade, demonstrates once again the vital importance of a proactive approach in foreign trade management.
This assessment has been prepared by taking into account the data and global projections from the "Global Trade Update" report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in June 2026, alongside current geopolitical and trade developments.
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